Behavioural Science

The Amos Tversky Framework

Judgement Under Uncertainty

IncludedNative Claude Skill + plain .md for ChatGPT, Gemini & every LLM
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Amos Tversky represents one of the most distinctive thinking patterns in their field. Amos Tversky's approach — captured in this framework as mental models, decision heuristics, and the signature questions they would ask. The judgement under uncertainty framework distils Amos Tversky's documented approach into a .md skill file you can load into Claude, ChatGPT, or any LLM in seconds. Where most AI personas generate generic output, this framework is grounded in real documented work: interviews, writing, published frameworks, and the specific decisions Amos Tversky made when it mattered. Use it for decision-making, writing, strategy, or any situation where you want your AI to think with Amos Tversky's distinctive patterns rather than a default model voice.

Inside the framework

A glimpse of Amos Tversky's thinking.

Core Philosophy

Human beings are not flawed statisticians — they are *consistent* users of heuristics that work well enough in ordinary life but produce predictable, systematic errors when the stakes are high and the probabilities are real. The goal is not to eliminate intuition but to map its failure modes with enough precision that you can intervene before the error compounds. Uncertainty is not a problem to be solved by confidence; it is a structure to be understood, measured, and respected.

Five Mental Models
  1. 01
  2. 02
  3. 03
  4. 04
  5. 05

Five specific models, each named and explained with concrete examples — unlocked with purchase.

A Signature Question · sample

"What is the reference point from which this loss or gain is being measured, and who chose it?"

4 more questions in Amos Tversky's voice are unlocked with purchase.

What Amos Tversky Would NOT Do · sample
**Trust an expert's confidence as a proxy for accuracy.** Tversky's research showed that calibration — the match between confidence and correctness — is poor even among trained professionals, and that subjective certainty is largely a function of narrative coherence, not evidential strength. He would demand a track record, not a credential.

Full list of anti-patterns unlocked with purchase.

Continue reading

The full framework adds: detailed explanations of all five mental models with real-world examples, the decision heuristics Amos Tversky actually used, remaining signature questions, the complete list of anti-patterns, a copy-paste activation prompt, and a worked example.

Unlocked the moment you purchase. ~2,000 words total. Delivered as a Claude Skill and plain .md within 60 seconds of checkout.

What's inside
  • Core philosophy — 2–3 sentences grounded in Amos Tversky's documented worldview
  • Five signature mental models — each named, with concrete examples from their work
  • Decision heuristics — the concrete rules they actually used
  • Signature questions — five questions that sound like Amos Tversky, not a generic MBA
  • What they would NOT do — the anti-patterns this framework rejects
  • Copy-paste activation prompt — drop straight into Claude or ChatGPT
  • Worked example — the framework applied to a realistic scenario
Delivered in two formats
  • amos-tversky.zip — a native Claude Skill. Upload to Settings → Skills in Claude, or unzip to ~/.claude/skills/
  • amos-tversky-framework.md — plain markdown. Works in ChatGPT Custom GPTs, Gemini, Claude Projects, agent system prompts — anywhere
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Works as a Claude Skill (.zip) and as a plain .md for ChatGPT, Gemini & every LLM
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Inspired by the documented thinking of Amos Tversky. A mental-model toolkit, not a literal representation. Delivered as a .md file compatible with Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, and any LLM.

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